In a significant milestone for China's energy landscape, the latest forecasts from the China Electricity Council reveal a remarkable shift towards sustainable energy sources. According to the "2023-2024 National Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis and Forecast Report" released on January 30th, 2024, renewable energy capacity is poised to surpass coal-fired power for the first time.
The report indicates that in 2023, China's total electricity consumption reached 9.22 trillion kilowatt-hours, with a per capita consumption of 6539 kilowatt-hours. Notably, the country saw a 6.7% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption, marking a significant acceleration compared to 2022.
Looking ahead to 2024, the forecast predicts a 6% year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption. Furthermore, the country is set to add over 300 million kilowatts of new power generation capacity, with renewable energy installations surpassing coal-fired capacity for the first time.
Quarterly comparisons from 2023 reveal a steady increase in electricity consumption growth, culminating in an estimated national peak demand of 1.45 billion kilowatts in 2024, representing an increase of approximately 100 million kilowatts from the previous year.
On the supply side, the forecast indicates that newly commissioned power generation capacity will exceed 300 million kilowatts in 2024, with renewable energy capacity leading the expansion, surpassing coal-fired capacity.
According to Zhang Lin, Director of the Development Planning Department at the China Electricity Council, the rise of renewable energy underscores the importance of coal-fired power in ensuring energy security. Despite the rapid growth of wind and solar installations, coal-fired power remains essential for balancing the intermittency of renewable sources and providing stability to the grid.
Zhang emphasized that while renewable energy plays a crucial role in reducing carbon emissions, the inherent variability of sources like wind and solar necessitates a reliable backup from coal-fired power to meet real-time electricity demands.
The transition towards sustainable energy sources aligns with China's commitment to reducing carbon emissions and achieving its climate goals. With renewable energy surpassing coal-fired power projections, China is demonstrating significant progress towards a cleaner and more sustainable energy future.
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